BC3. Basque centre for climate change – Klima aldaketa ikergai

Paradoxically, knowledge of the increasing certainty about climate change, and of the severe consequences of this phenomenon for large portions of the world population, may lead individuals and communities to fall into a paralysing defeatism. Such defeatism, even more paradoxically, may be accompanied by complacency, due to assumption that, on the basis of our societies’ institutional, scientific and technical capabilities, we can wait until problems really become evident. Both the defeatist and the complacent attitude may lead to failure in the application of entirely feasible mitigation and adaptation measures, with consequent much increased probabilities of economic, human and ecological costs. In view of the degree to which these attitudes are present in our societies we may wonder whether inaction may be justifiable on our part despite awareness of stringent responsibilities. Here I argue that, even if it may appear that, under these conditions, we cannot take direct action on our responsibilities regarding climate change, we still have responsibilities to act at another level.
Hide abstract

Throughout history, technological development and economic growth has led to greater prosperity and overall standard of living for many people in society. However, along with the benefits of economic development comes the social responsibility of minimizing the mortality and morbidity health impacts associated with human activities, safeguarding ecosystems, protecting world cultural heritage and preventing integrity and amenity losses of man-made environments. Effects are often irreversible, extend way beyond national borders and can occur over a long time lag. At current pollutant levels, the monetized impacts carry a significant burden to society, on the order of few percent of a country’s GDP, and upwards to 10% of GDP for countries in transition. A recent study for the European Union found that the aggregate damage burden from industrial air pollution alone costs every man, woman and child between 200 and 330 € a year, of which CO2 emissions contributed 40 to 60% (EEA 2011).

In a sustainable world, an assessment of the environmental impacts (and damage costs) imposed by man's decisions on present and future generations is necessary when addressing the cost effectiveness of local and national policy options that aim at improving air quality and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The aim of this paper is to present a methodology for calculating such adverse public health outcomes arising from exposure to routine atmospheric pollutant emissions using a simplified methodology, referred to as the Uniform World Model (UWM). The UWM clearly identifies the most relevant factors of the analysis, is easy to implement and requires only a few key input parameters that are easily obtained by the analyst, even to someone living in a developing country. The UWM is exact in the limit all parameters are uniformly distributed, due to mass conservation.

The current approach can be applied to elevated and mobile sources. Its robustness has been validated (typical deviations are well within the ±50% range) by comparison with much more detailed air quality and environmental impact assessment models, such as ISC3, CALPUFF, EMEP and GAINS. Several comparisons illustrating the wide range of applicability of the UWM are presented in the paper, including estimation of mean concentrations at the local, country and continental level and calculation of local and country level intake factors and marginal damage costs of primary particulate matter and inorganic secondary aerosols. Relationships are also provided for computing spatial concentration profiles and cumulative impact or damage cost distributions. Assessments cover sources located in the USA, Europe, East Asia (China) and South Asia (India).

Hide abstract

The purpose of this paper is to understand the long run demand for energy-related environmental quality, its influence on legislation and on transitions to low polluting energy sources. It starts by presenting a simple framework of the relationship between the demand for and supply of environmental quality, environmental legislation and energy. This forms the structure for presenting a series of episodes in British history where a demand for improvements in energy-related environmental quality existed. This analysis proposes that markets can drive transitions to low polluting energy sources, in specific economic conditions. However, most probably, governments will need to push them, and this cannot be expected without strong and sustained demand for environmental improvements. Yet, while demand is a prerequisite, it is not enough. It must also be spearheaded by strong, creative and sustained pressure groups (i.e., powerful lobbying and the weakening of the counter-lobby) to introduce legislation, to enforce it and to avoid it being over-turned by future governments.
Hide abstract

Making decisions about optimal investments in green infrastructure necessitates setting social discount rates. This paper suggests a practical way for determining the discount rate for projects or programmes in which one of the options is to maintain or improve land in its natural state. We propose an “equivalency principle” to derive a simple rule that sets the discount rate. The rule is based on the premise that the long term value of a naturally preserved land track ought to be at least the same as the value of an identical land track in the vicinity to which permission has been granted for development. We illustrate this principle with various case studies and we apply it to a contentious investment project in the Basque Country associated with the regeneration of a large scale harbour in the province of Gipuzkoa (North of Spain) that involves reclaiming natural land that has important ecological value, including for the conservation of a marine ecosystem.
Hide abstract

We discuss a tax-transfer scheme that aims at addressing the under-provision problem associated with the private supply of international public goods and at bringing about Pareto optimal allocations internationally. In particular, we consider the example of the global public good ‘climate stabilisation’, both in an analytical and a numerical simulation model. The proposed scheme levies Pigouvian taxes globally, while international sidepayments are employed in order to provide incentives to individual countries for not taking a free-ride from the international Pigouvian tax scheme. The side-payments, in turn, are financed via the environmental taxes. As a distinctive feature we take into account ancillary benefits that may be associated with local public characteristics of climate policy. We determine the positive impact that ancillary effects may exert on the scope for financing side-payments via environmental taxation. A particular attractive feature of ancillary benefits is that they arise shortly after the implementation of climate policies and therefore yield an almost immediate payback of investments in abatement efforts. Especially in times of high public debt levels, long periods of amortisation would tend to reduce political support for investments in climate policy.
Hide abstract

In the last decade, a few papers have analysed the consequences of achieving the greenhouse gas concentration levels necessary to maintain global temperature increases below 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. Most models and scenarios assume that future trends in global GDP will be similar to the growth experienced in the past century, which would imply multiplying current output nineteen-fold in this century. However, natural resource and environmental constraints suggest that future global economic growth may not be so high. Furthermore, the environmental implications of such growth depend on how it is distributed across countries. This paper studies the implications on GHG abatement policies of different assumptions on global GDP growth and convergence levels. A partial equilibrium model (POLES) of the world´s energy system is used to provide detailed projections up to 2050 for the different regions of the world. The results suggest that while low stabilisation is technically feasible and economically viable for the world in all the scenarios considered, it is more likely to occur with more modest global growth. Convergence in living standards on the other hand places greater pressures in terms of the required reduction in emissions. In general we find that there are major differences between regions in terms of the size and the timing of abatement costs and economic impact.
Hide abstract

This article uses the hedonic pricing method to estimate the price premium paid for the highest energy-efficiency label (A+) in the refrigerators market of the Basque Autonomous Community (Spain). The estimated figure is 8.9% of the final price or about 60 euro, which represents one third of the energy savings that a consumer gets during the lifetime of a refrigerator with the highest energy-efficiency label. This figure is then combined with the linear version of the Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS) to obtain own and cross-price elasticities of demand. The information presented here is useful for policy design and analysis. The results indicate that the demand for refrigerators with the highest energy-efficiency label is highly sensitive to price variations.
Hide abstract

The provision of artificial light was revolutionised by a series of discontinuous innovations in lighting appliances, fuels, infrastructures and institutions during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. In Britain, the real price of lighting fell dramatically (3,000-fold between 1800 and 2000) and quality rose. Along with rises in real income and population, these developments meant that total consumption of lighting was 40,000 times greater by2000 than in 1800. The paper presents estimates of the income and price elasticities of demand for lighting services over the past three hundred years, and explores how they evolved. Income and price elasticities increased dramatically (to 3.5 and -1.7, respectively) between the 1840s and the 1890s and fell rapidly in the twentieth century. Even in the twentieth century and at the beginning of the twenty-first century, rebound effects in the lighting market still appear to be potentially important. This paper provides a first case study of the long run effects of socio-economic change and technological innovation on the consumption of energy services in the UK. We suggest that understanding the evolution of the demand for energy services and the factors that influence it contributes to a better understanding of future energy uses and associated greenhouse gas emissions.
Hide abstract

The security of natural gas supply is an important issue for all EU countries due to the region’s heavy dependence on imported supply sources and in light of energy demand for gas that is continuously increasing. Discussions have emphasised strategies for securing the supply at the macro level, e.g. diversification in supply sources, increase in storage capacity, etc. By contrast, consumers’ demand for the reliability of gas supply is rarely investigated. Hence this study was conducted to examine the economic implications associated with the security of gas supply directly to domestic consumers. Based on the choice experiment approach, household surveys were conducted in France, Italy and the UK. The results confirmed that the degree of the economic impact of a disruption of gas supply to domestic consumers was a function of the duration of a supply disruption and the season in which a supply cut would take place, as well as other preferences of consumers. The willingness to pay to secure per unit of gas consumption, or alternatively the costs of gas unsupplied, was estimated at between €2.65/cubic metre and €41.48/cubic metre across three different European countries.
Hide abstract

Besides costs and benefits, fairness aspects tend to influence negotiating parties’ willingness to join an international agreement on climate change mitigation. Fairness is largely considered to improve the prospects of success of international negotiations and hence measures raising fairness perception might – in turn – help to bring about effective cooperative international climate change mitigation. We consider the influences present international support of climate policy in developing countries exerts on fairness perception and how this again might affect international negotiations. In doing so, we distinguish between fairness perception which is based on historical experiences and perception which is based on conjectures about opponents’ intentions. By identifying beneficial components of current support schemes, lessons can be learnt for designing new schemes like the Green Climate Fund.
Hide abstract

In the framework of international cooperation on climate change to control greenhouse gas emissions
(GHG), this paper aims to shed new light on the eventuality of the emergence of a country (or a group
of countries) behaving as a leader in the implementation of its environmental policy. The sequence of
moves in the existing literature is usually an exogenous assumption, – known as the Cournot
assumption (if countries take action simultaneously) and the Stackelberg assumption (if they act
sequentially, the latter observing the strategy of the former). The main purpose here is to make the
timing endogenous. To do so, we introduce a pre-play stage in the basic two-country game. Then we
provide different sets of minimal conditions – on the benefit and damage functions linked to GHG
emissions into the atmosphere, yielding respectively the simultaneous and the two sequential modes of
play. While the results essentially confirm the prevalence of the former, they also indicate that the
latter are natural under some robust conditions: a leader can emerge endogenously when
implementing its environmental policy. Finally we provide sufficient conditions for a specific leader
to appear. All the results come with an analysis in terms of global emissions and global welfare. No
extraneous assumptions such as concavity, existence, or uniqueness of equilibria are needed, and the
analysis makes crucial use of the basic results from the theory of supermodular games.

Hide abstract

International transfers in climate policy channeled from the industrialized to the developing
world either support the mitigation of climate change or the adaptation to global warming.
From an allocative efficiency point of view, transfers supporting mitigation tend to be Pareto-improving
whereas this is not very likely in the case of adaptation support. We illustrate this
by regarding transfer schemes currently applied under the UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto framework.
However, if we enrich the analysis by integrating distributional aspects, we find that
international adaptation funding may help both developing and developed world. Interestingly
this is not due to altruistic incentives, but due to follow-up effects on international
negotiations on climate change mitigation. We argue that the lack of fairness perceived by
developing countries in the international climate policy arena can be reduced by the support
of adaptation in these countries. As we show – taking into account different fairness concepts
– this might raise the prospects of success in international negotiations on climate change.
Yet, we find that the influence of transfers may induce different fairness effects on climate
change mitigation negotiations to run counter.
We discuss whether current transfer schemes under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto framework
adequately serve the distributive and allocative objectives pursued in international climate
policy.

Hide abstract

This paper considers how energy-related external costs change through time. It focuses on one of the key periods in the history of energy. After a period of declining coal prices and soaring consumption which fuelled the Second Industrial Revolution, the nineteenth century British economy was externalising the social costs of energy production and consumption on a massive scale. Rising from 25% in the 1820s, an estimated 60%-70% of the average social costs of coal were externalised in the 1880s, imposing damages close to 20% of GDP. The eventual decline in air pollution concentration (around 1900) occurred fifty years later than was broadly socially optimal. This experience highlights the evolution of the demand for and supply of environmental quality in the context of economic growth, and the nature of related market and government failures, implying the necessity for adaptation rather than encouraging mitigation. This experience may offer lessons for climate analysis and policy-making.
Hide abstract

Whether Information and Communication Technology (ICT) constitutes a threat to or a cure for environmental deterioration is a matter of controversy. Empirical evidence on the impacts of ICT is rare, so few generalisable lessons can be drawn. This study addresses precisely this critique by providing empirical results on the role of ICT in research for environmental sustainability. The application of ICT in research is generally regarded as a way to exploit such technology in favour of the environment. Our analysis shows that the use of ICT in environmental research is of great importance in the scientific community, but it can also play a crucial role in the policy context, as well as in the business sector.

Hide abstract

This paper analyses decisions on energy efficiency (EE) investments by small and medium manufacturing enterprises in the U.S. which have received assessment from the Department of Energy (DoE). The results confirm the importance of payback time and investment costs as the main determining factors in deciding whether to invest in energy efficiency. This behaviour is mantained over time. Such investment recommendations are frequently not implemented even though they apparently entail major advantages and give rise to considerable energy savings. The data show results which are compatible with a series of elementary valuation processes (limited by the availability of information), far removed from other, more academically ambitious methods such as Net Present Value (NPV) and the Real Options (RO) method. The paper analyses the impact of the physical situation of firms in line with their geographical locations in different US states, and changes over time from 1984 to 2008, i.e. 25 years of information. Finally, the paper examines the different levels of effectiveness of participating centres in getting firms to decide to make the investments proposed. EE investment decisions are analysed here using Logit models whose parameters are calibrated on the basis of the information held in the Industrial Assessment Centres (IAC) database. The results shed some light on impact assessment and suggest various policies for promoting investment in EE.

Hide abstract

In recent years there has been considerable scientific and public debate on climate change and its direct and indirect effects on human health. According to the World Health Organization (WHO, 2006), some 2.5 million people die every year from non-infectious diseases directly attributable to environmental factors such as air pollution, stressful conditions in the workplace, exposure to chemicals such as lead, and exposure to environmental tobacco smoke. Changes in climatic conditions and climate variability can also affect human health both directly and indirectly, via changes in biological and ecological processes that influence the transmission of several infectious diseases (WHO, 2003). In the past fifteen years a large amount of research on the effects of climate changes on human health has addressed two fundamental questions (WHO, 2003). First, can historical data be of any help in revealing how short-run or long-run climate variations affect the occurrence of infectious diseases? Second, is it possible to build more accurate statistical models which are capable of predicting the future effects of different climate conditions on the transmissibility of particularly dangerous infectious diseases? The primary goal of this paper is to review the most relevant contributions which have directly tackled those questions, both with respect to the effects of climate changes on the diffusion of non-infectious and infectious diseases. Specific attention will be drawn on the methodological aspects of each study, which will be classified according to the type of statistical model considered. Additional aspects such as characteristics of the dependent and independent variables, number and type of countries investigated, data frequency, time period spanned by the analysis, and robustness of the empirical findings are examined.

Hide abstract

The paper analyzes the implications of local and global pollution when two types of abatement activities can be undertaken. One type reduces solely local pollution (e.g., use of particulate matter filters) while the other mitigates global pollution as well (e.g., application of fuel saving technologies). In the framework of a 2-country endogenous growth model, the implications of different assumptions about the degree to which global externalities are internalized are analyzed. Subsequently, we derive policy rules adapted to the different scenarios. Special attention is paid to pollution, growth and optimal policy in the case of asymmetric internalization.

Hide abstract

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA 2005) has classified a number of ecosystems good and services (EGS) provided by tropical forests, namely cultural, provisioning, regulatory and support services. The primary focus of this paper is to carry out an economic assessment by comparing the financial costs and returns of selected EGS, namely carbon and timber in the tropical forests of Central America. Timber is unlike the other EGS provided by forests in that it competes with the other services, i.e. biodiversity, recreation and water services. Carbon storage is the non-timber value most often included in forest accounts and can be equated directly with timber available in terms of biomass content.

The study provides a quantitative appraisal of the carbon and timber stocks and flows of tropical (primary) forests and the associated trade-offs by evaluating them simultaneously using data and market values from a number of sources. The provision of reliable and accurate estimates of the economic value of these services is crucial to plan adequate conservation policies that encourage the protection and sustainable management of tropical forests such as those under REDD/REDD+. Results indicate that the economic return for managing natural forests is influenced by timber and carbon prices as well as the discount rate applied. Timber on face value is the better land use option; however, there are many issues that need to be considered when valuing timber, especially regarding the management regimes. Revenues under REDD/ REDD+ option would be higher if co-benefits, which include monies from the sustainable extraction of timber under Sustainable Forestry Management (SFM) are considered.


Hide abstract

This paper presents a bottom-up methodological framework for estimating some of the key ecosystem services provided by forests biomes worldwide. We consider the provision of wood and non-wood forest products, recreation and passive use, and forests’ contribution to climate regulation in terms of carbon sequestration capacity. The valuation framework derives per hectare estimates by applying meta-analysis, value transfer and scaling up procedures in order to control for existing heterogeneities across world regions and forest biomes. The first part of the study estimates stock values per hectare for each forest ecosystem service in the baseline year 2000 and in the year 2050. Carbon stocks represent, in general, the highest value per hectare, followed by provisioning services, passive use and recreational values. The second part provides an estimation of the welfare loss (or gain) associated with policy inaction in the period 2000-2050 leading to a change in the forest area. Welfare results are mixed and require a careful interpretation. In different world regions, no policy initiative can results in both gains and losses, which appear to be sensitive to the use of lower or upper bounds values per hectare.

Hide abstract

Since the release of the Millennium Ecosystem Approach (MEA), the number of studies valuing ecosystem services has grown. As a consequence of this growing literature, different interpretations exist on the classification of services as derived from MEA, and several studies have argued that this may not be the most appropriate framework when the aim of the analysis is economic valuation. The present paper contributes to this debate by reviewing and comparing these critical views in order firstly to clarify the existing confusion in the terminology and interpretations; and secondly to shed some light on a desirable classification and conceptualization of ecosystem services for valuation. To illustrate this, we present an examination of existing primary valuation studies of water related services provided by tropical forests, which we analyze under the MEA classification framework and compare it with an output-based classification, in which the service is defined in terms of its benefits (outputs) to humans. Our results support the idea that an output-based classification should provide more accurate values and could help avoid certain problems such as double accounting and potential underestimation of services values.

Hide abstract