BC3. Basque centre for climate change – Klima aldaketa ikergai

Seminar / Mintegia / Seminario
Integrating biophysical and socioeconomic issues regarding adaptation to climate change in California.

Prof. Louise Jackson (Univ. California, Davis)

ABSTRACT: This place-based case-study of potential responses to climate change in an agricultural county in California’s Central Valley focused on the period of 2010–2050, and dealt with biophysical and socioeconomic issues related to both mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to adaptation to an uncertain climate. Statistical relationships showed that in the past 100 years, changes in crop acreage by crop has depended little on growing degree days during summer, and in fact, summer temperatures have increased much less than winter temperatures. Econometric analysis indicated that warmer winters, as projected by Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory-BCCA during 2035–2050, will decrease wheat acreage and increase alfalfa and tomato acreage, with slight effects on tree and vine crops. Crop price and availability of irrigation water were often more important for crop acreage projections than temperature. The Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model showed that these econometric projections did not reduce irrigation demand under either the B1 or A2 scenarios, but a diverse, water-efficient cropping pattern combined with improved irrigation technology reduced demand to 12 percent below the historic mean. Assessment of countywide agricultural GHG emissions and engagement in the development of Yolo County’s Climate Action Plan showed that nitrous oxide (mainly from nitrogen fertilizers) was the main source (40 percent) of emissions from agricultural practices. Reduction in cropland area and a shift toward crops that use less nitrogen has resulted in an 11 percent decline in agricultural GHG emissions since 1990. Emissions from cropland and rangeland were several orders of magnitude lower than urbanized land per unit area. A survey distributed to 570 farmers and ranchers achieved a 34 percent response rate. Farmers concerned about climate change impacts on future water availability were more likely to implement water conservation practices. Also, those with strong beliefs that climate change was occurring and posed risks to agriculture were more likely to adopt voluntary GHG mitigation practices. Exploration of future urbanization scenarios with the urban growth model (UPlan) showed that channeling much or all future development into existing urban areas, rather than onto agricultural lands, will increase ecosystem services by preserving agricultural land and open space, immensely reducing the Yolo County’s GHG emissions, and greatly enhancing agricultural sustainability.

Prof. Jackson´s short cv: Prof. Jackson is the John B. Orr Endowed Chair of Environmental Plant Sciences in the Department of Land, Air, and Water Resources at UC Davis. She has a strong interest the role of biodiversity in agricultural systems and the potential for working-landscapes to play a role in the restoration and conservation of native plants and animals. Dr. Jackson serves as co-chair of DIVERSITAS agroBIODIVERSITY Network Science Committee and is a board member of the International Centre for Research in Organic Food Systems

If you are interested in attending the Seminar, please register yourself clicking here

12:00-13:00 BC3 Alameda Urquijo 4,4º, 48008 Bilbao

* The Seminar will be in English. / Mintegia ingelesez burutuko da. / El seminario se realizará en inglés.