BC3. Basque centre for climate change – Klima aldaketa ikergai


Public health impacts in URban environments of Greenhouse gas Emissions reduction strategies perseus logo

The project will examine the health impacts of greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction policies in urban settings inEurope, China and India, using case studies of 3-4 large urban centres and three smaller urban centres. Sets of realistic interventions will be proposed, tailored to local needs, to meet published abatement goals for GHG Emissions for 2020, 2030 and 2050.

Mitigation actions will be defined in four main sectors: power generation/industry, household energy, transport and food and agriculture. The chief pathways by which such measures influence health will be described, and models developed to quantify changes in health-related ‘exposures’ and health behaviours. Models will include ones relating to outdoor air pollution, indoor air quality and temperature, physical activity, dietary intake, road injury risks and selected other exposures.


Integrated quantitative models of health impacts will be based on life table methods encompassing both mortality and morbidity outcomes modelled over 20 year time horizons. Where possible, exposure-response relationships will be based on review evidence published by the Comparative Risk Assessment initiative or systematic reviews. Uncertainties in model estimates will be characterized using a mathematical framework to quantify the influence of uncertainties in both model structure and parameter estimates. Particular attention will be given to economic assessments, both in terms of behavioural choices/uptake of various forms of mitigation measure (with new surveys to address evidence gaps), and in terms of health benefits and costs calculated from societal, health service and household perspectives. A decision analysis framework will be developed to compare different mitigation options.

Start date: February 2011

End date: July 2014

Call: FP7-ENV-2010 (European Commission)

Partners in the PURGE consortium:

London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (United Kingdom) - Coordinator
Arup International Consultants (China)
BC3 Basque Centre for Climate Change (Spain)
Univerzita Karlova V Praze (Czech Republic)
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy)
Foundation for Innovation and Technology Transfer (India)
Peking University (China)
Institut Nuklearne Nauke Vinca (Serbia)
University College London (United Kingdom)

Key people involved in BC3:

Prof. Anil Markandya 
Dr. Joseph Spadaro 
Dr. Aline Chiabai 
Dr. Ibon Galarraga 

Results: The overall project aim is to quantify the positive and negative impacts on health and well-being of greenhouse gas reduction strategies in urban areas of Europe, China and India, and to develop and present the evidence in ways that are most relevant to major policy decisions in such areas as energy, housing/built environment, transport, and food.

Specific objectives:

  • With the input of panels of experts, to define the critical policy choices for mitigation in selected settings in Europe, China and India, and the parameters within which those choices are constrained.
  • To delineate sets of specific realistic interventions, tailored to local needs, which meet the demanding abatement trajectories at several future time points (2020, 2030, 2050) as set out by the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and in national or regional assessments.
  • To determine and describe the critical pathways by which such choices influence population health, encompassing both direct and indirect mechanisms.
  • To quantify the changes in health-affecting ‘exposures’ and health behaviours that are likely to accompany those policies and hence
  • To develop and implement integrated quantitative models of the health impacts (mortality and morbidity) associated with those policy choices.
  • To address, though evidence review and new surveys, important evidence gaps about the behaviour changes that are likely from selected mitigation measures, and about other forms of economic influence on patterns of energy consumption.
  • To determine the costs and benefits to health of the mitigation measures examined from societal, household and health service perspectives.
  • To examine the uncertainties in model estimates of health impacts and costs, using a mathematical framework to quantify the influence of both structural (model form) and parameter uncertainties, and hence
  • To develop and implement a generic decision analytical model to compare the different mitigation interventions based on pre-determined decision criteria in the context of uncertainty.
  • To examine the implications of such comparative evidence, specifically in relation to health-related costs and benefits, for policy decisions both locally and internationally.
  • To provide detailed commentary of the apparent trade-offs for health of policy choices in each of the sectors, the key areas of uncertainty, the needs for further research, and the range of further questions necessary for guiding major decisions about local, regional and global priorities for mitigation.
  • To disseminate the results of the work, and assess their utility to user communities, and to provide training to users through workshops.

Website: purge.lshtm.ac.uk/project

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