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Environmental problems: How can System Dynamics complement Economics? (Abstract)
Dynamics complicate understanding. It took 2000 years before Newton corrected Aristotle’s misunderstanding of velocity. Economic systems are harder to understand than the velocity of objects, and it is not surprising that dynamics are still not well understood in economics. I will concentrate on two dynamic phenomena, cycles and overshoots.
Examples range from water funnels, binge drinking and commodity cycles to management of renewable resources such as fish, reindeer pastures and climate. Methods used range from laboratory experiments, to simulations, and to dynamic optimization. I end by presenting key principles for modeling of dynamic systems developed and used in the field of System Dynamics.
Misperceptions of the dynamics of climate change and of policy instruments (Abstract)
There is a wide gap between recommendations and actual reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases. Decisions to reduce emissions rely on politicians and their electorates. They may have good reasons to delay initiatives, however, they may also be confused by contradictory information and they may unable to perceive consequences of neither emissions nor policy initiatives. One challenge is to consider causes of climate change in addition to observations. Another is to realize that the climate problem is coupled to the problem of fossil energy depletion. A third is to understand the consequences of delays both when it comes to effects of emissions and to development of alternative technologies. Regarding policies, one major challenge is to understand how environmental taxes work. Most misperceptions seem to bias policies towards inaction. In my analysis of misperceptions I will draw on laboratory experiments, simulation models and observations of debates and policy making.
* El seminario se realizará en inglés. / Mintegia ingelesez burutuko da./ The Seminar will be in English.
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