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Copenhagen: What does it mean to you?
Source: Climate Science and Policy
Anil Markandya, Scientific Director at BC3 – Basque Centre for Climate Change
“Allocation of emissions rights, this is the key issue. But Copenhagen is already a step beyond Kyoto”
“I would not consider the Copenhagen meeting a failure if no treaty is signed. The process of preparing the meeting was just as important and we have made progress in getting some key players engaged in a more constructive way than at Kyoto. The leading one of course is the United States, but recent statements from China also indicate that it is willing to consider some further action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
My hope is that at Copenhagen we set clear steps that have to be achieved in the next two years, so that there is a plan for the post-Kyoto phase (which ends in 2012). Perhaps it will not take the form of binding targets for all parties. But other instruments are possible and could work to put us on a track to meet the 450 ppmv stabilization target. One thing is clear: we need to bring the major developing countries on board in a more substantial way than in the Kyoto Treaty, and that in my opinion will be the major stumbling block. The key issue is the allocation of emissions rights and we have to find a way to solve that. Any allocation that the big developing countries like India and China consider acceptable would entail major transfers from the developed countries to these developing countries, which would be unacceptable to the developed world. That is essence is the stumbling block”