BC3. Basque centre for climate change – Klima aldaketa ikergai

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Models and Tools

BC3 has been active in the development of new methodologies and tools. For instance, in the context of decision making support tools, BC3 has developed ARIES (Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services http://aries.integratedmodelling.org/ ), a web-based free modelling technology offered to users such as practitioners, scientists and decision-makers, including members of NGOs, academic, or governmental institutions worldwide, to assist rapid ecosystem service assessment and valuation (ESAV). Through ARIES, BC3 has been developing some of the most advanced methodologies (assembling deterministic or probabilistic models) to quantify and value flows of ecosystem services at the appropriate spatial scale, and ecological and socio-economic context. ARIES maps concrete, spatially explicit beneficiaries of ecosystem services, and quantifies their demand for each service. Conceptualizing ecosystem services as a concrete list of benefits for concrete beneficiary groups avoids the problem of “double counting” benefits, which has plagued past ecosystem service valuation efforts.

Regarding low carbon transition pathways, BC3 has developed different tools and methodologies that are able to capture the interlinkages between socio-economic, energy, environmental and climate systems, in order to better understand measures to control GHG emissions at the national and global level. These tool/models are very diverse and include different types of CGE/input-output models, integrated assessment models and micro-simulation models. For example, BC3 collaborated with the Basque Parliament in relation to the “Climate Change Law” and its implications for industry; with the REPSOL Foundation on issues related to energy poverty. It also developed an input-output model to assess the impact of certain policies for Bilbao city council (for instance the impact of its energy efficiency plan or the economic impact of potential flooding events in the city). Finally, more recently, BC3 has evaluated the economic implication of the “Basque Climate Change Strategy 2050” of the Basque Government.

In the field of data analysis and complex systems modelling, BC3 has developed new tools for advanced time series analysis that have been successfully employed for the study of paleoclimate records and future climate projections. The Centre has also developed the theory of Continuous Diversity, which can be applied to a wide variety of complex adaptive systems, ranging from polycrystalline materials and glaciers, to structured populations and biodiversity.

BC3 has developed an economic-energy-environment model for the Basque Country, which focuses on the analysis of scenarios and policies in different areas of decision making. The model has been used successfully for analyzing the economic impact of the Basque Country's 2050 Climate Change Strategy. The DERIO model, follows the philosophy of the FIDELIO (Fully Interregional Dynamic Econometric Long-term Input- Output) created for the Joint Research Center of the European Commission. This model has recently contributed to the analysis of the impact of the Clean Air Package of the European Union. DERIO is characterized by a detailed description of the Basque economy in terms of sectors (88 sectors), products (105 products), consumers (5 groups of consumers differentiated by income level), categories of final consumption (16 categories), energy system (processing industry, exchanges, final consumption, etc.) and environmental extensions (energy, CO2 emissions and other pollutants). One of the main characteristics of the model is that the user can adapt it according to his or her needs. This feature, together with its multi-dimensional character, makes it especially useful for the analysis of scenarios and policies in different areas of decision making. In addition, its flexibility and versatility make it suitable for the analysis of specific policies, such as the promotion of energy efficiency (households, industry or transport), Renove plans, and tax reforms, etc.


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